The latest Argos Mid-Market Index which shows movements in private company prices has just been published. It shows data up to Q3 2017 and indicates a record high of 9.5x.  As you can see from the graph it has been steadily climbing since 2009.   So if you're a business owner it's a good time to think about exit.  Or at any rate to make sure you have a credible exit or succession plan in place.   Many owners of private companies have much of their wealth locked up in their shareholding and so even an equity release transaction - perhaps by selling shares to a third party like a private equity house can help balance their personal portfolio.

The other factor I now start to hear in conversation with business owners is concern about the tax regime that a new government might bring.    The capital taxes regime re the sale of company shares is particularly benign with Entrepreneurs' Relief effectively reducing the rate to 10% on the first £10M of lifetime gains.  Whilst Entrepreneurs' Relief was brought in by a Labour government there is an up swell of concern that a Corbyn led government might change things.

None of this may happen of course but it does underscore the need for every business owner to have a plan for exit and succession - even if it is explicitly not intended to happen for some time.

We're running our Business Exit Strategies Seminar in Stevenage on 23 November the day after the Chancellor Philip Hammond's budget speech.  So we should have clarity at least on his short term tax plans.

Our event, which is free, gives useful insights into a range of topics:-

• The current M&A market
• Strategic planning
• How to build value in your business
• Business valuation
• How to achieve succession through a management buyout
• Tax - how to mitigate and also how to use your tax affairs to build value in your company
• Company sales - how to sell your business, pitfalls, why some companies don't sell

There are a few places still available - and the venue (Novotel just off the A1M) is easy to get to from Hertfordshire, Bedfordshire, Northamptonshire, Cambridgeshire, Essex and North London.  So have a look at our website for the full program and booking.  http://www.pem.co.uk/corporate-finance/business-exit-strategies-stevenage

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We're once again running our Business Exit Strategies seminar this time in Stevenage, Hertfordshire on 23 November 2017.

This is aimed at business owners who are beginning a planning cycle towards exit or succession or indeed those who plan an exit or sucession event in the short term.  It's an interactive and engaging morning that will send attendees back to base with useful insights. 

We've all been to seminars that are just overt sales pitches, or frankly boring.  So we set out to make sure our events are neither.   Our primary objective is to inform, and leave our guests feeling it's been a morning well spent.  Just ask any previous attendees.

We cover a range of topics including

• Developing a workable ownership strategy
• Succession buyouts and MBOs
• Valuing a business for sale
• Tax efficient exit planning
• How to sell your business
• Negotiating the deal

And the key benefits of coming along are

• A practical overview of how to plan and implement your strategy for exit or succession
• A clear understanding of the selling process
• Understand how succession buyouts are an alternative to selling
• Tax planning ideas for exit and succession
• 60-page book exclusive to guests

If you would like to come visit our website Business Exit Strategies Stevenage Nov2017

Venue is the Novotel - so very easy to get to just off the motorway.

Motivation

Like Hercule Poirot you should be on the lookout for ulterior motivation.  Was the forecast prepared with one eye to selling the business (usually inflated) or getting a valuation for a matrimonial dispute (this often produces a low valuation if the business owner is the defendant).  Or perhaps it was prepared for bank funding – in which case be sure the bank will scrutinise and sensitise the forecast.

Poor track record of forecasting

If the business has historically been poor at predicting its results which should it be different now?

The pattern of growth or margins look odd

It’s always possible to benchmark the figures against public companies or other data.  If the business producing the forecasts has wildly different growth rates, or margins one needs a good explanation as to why that should be.

Forecasts prepared in isolation by the finance director

The CFO or FD in the business needs to canvas inputs from the key mangers in the business before he or she can produce anything meaningful.

The forecast is based on a huge assumption

If there’s one or two huge assumptions that drive the forecast, such as being able to raise millions of pounds of equity finance, or winning a significant new contract then you should consider what happens if those assumptions don’t prove realistic.

Forecasts conjured out of thin air

Of course if there are no, or few, supporting assumptions to check out then the forecast will lack credibility.  I recently valued an early stage technology company where it quickly became clear that the forecasts beyond the first twelve months were just round figure guesses – so I had to discount them altogether in my appraisal.

No balance sheet

I do sometimes see forecasts based on a profit and loss account and some cash flow assumptions.     Without a balance sheet a vital logic check is missing.